Briefing · Euros Today1. Main points UK gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.5% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2026 (revised up by 0.1 percentage points from the previous estimate), following an unrevised increase of 0.6% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2026. GDP for 2025 as a whole is estimated to have increased by 1.2%, revised down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous estimate.
The level of GDP in Quarter 2 2026 compared with Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2024 is now estimated to be 2.0% higher, revised up from the first estimate of 1.9%. Real household disposable income per head increased by 1.0% in Quarter 2 2026, following a decrease of 0.8% in Quarter 1 2026. The household saving ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points to 8.8% in Quarter 2 2026, driven by a rise in the contribution of non-pension saving.
The UK’s borrowing position with the rest of the world as a percentage of GDP is estimated to have decreased to 2.8% in Quarter 2 2026, compared with 2.9% in Quarter 1 2026. In line with our National Accounts Revisions Policy, this release contains data that are consistent with the UK National Accounts, the Blue Book 2026, which will be released on 30 October 2026. Back to table of contents 2.
Headline GDP figures UK real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased by 0.5% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2026 (previously 0.4%), following unrevised growth of 0.6% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2026. Figure 1 shows there have been some revisions to quarterly GDP across 2025 and 2026, ranging from negative 0.2 percentage points to positive 0.1 percentage points. The level of GDP in Quarter 2 2026 compared with Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2024 is now estimated to be 2.0% higher, revised up from the first estimate of 1.9%.
The cumulative increase in real GDP over this period is largely unchanged. Figure 1: Real GDP is estimated to have increased by 0.5% in Quarter 2 2026, revised up by 0.1 percentage points from our first quarterly estimate Real GDP, UK, Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025 to Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2026 Source: GDP quarterly national accounts from the Office for National Statistics Notes: Q1 refers to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar), Q2 refers to Quarter 2 (Apr to June), Q3 refers to Quarter 3 (July to Sept) and Q4 refers to Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec). Chart shows the quarter on previous quarter growth rounded to one decimal place (%).
Download this chart Figure 1: Real GDP is estimated to have increased by 0.5% in Quarter 2 2026, revised up by 0.1 percentage points from our first quarterly estimate Image .csv .xls In line with our National Accounts Revisions Policy , this release contains data that are consistent with the UK National Accounts, the Blue Book 2026, which will be released on 30 October 2026. Our Blue Book 2026: GDP impacts and main components article published on 20 August 2026 showed the preannounced revisions to nominal and real GDP annual and quarterly growth up to Quarter 4 2024. Today's release now includes revisions up to Quarter 2 2026 as a result of the Blue Book 2026 methodological changes, and additional updated data, which includes new Value Added Tax (VAT) turnover data for Quarter 1 2026.
Based on these new data, we have also reviewed the balancing of the three approaches to measuring GDP from 2025 onwards. In particular, data for Quarter 3 (July to Sept) and Quarter 4 2025 now reflect an average of the three approaches to measuring GDP, whereas these were previously balanced to the output approach, which takes the lead measure in the short run because of the higher data content. The early estimates of GDP are subject to revision (positive or negative).
Our recently published analysis shows that since Quarter 1 2000, there is a mean revision of positive 0.08 percentage points between the first estimate and the final one that is published three years later. The mean absolute revision between the first estimate, and this final one is 0.24 percentage points. Revisions are made when more detailed information becomes available through the comprehensive annual supply and use balancing process, as the data content increases.
For more information, please refer to our GDP revisions in Blue Book: 2025 article and our recent blog on managing the trade-off between timeliness and accuracy when producing GDP, including how the properties of revisions can change over time. The GDP growth vintages from 2025 onwards are shown in Table 4 in Section 8: Revisions to GDP , and in addition we include a summary of revisions by quarter. We give more information on uncertainty in Section 12: Data sources and quality .
Real GDP per head is estimated to have increased by 0.5% in Quarter 2 2026 and is up by 1.2% compared with the same quarter a year ago. See Section 6: Real GDP per head and real household disposable income per head for more information. Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK Percentage growth GDP (Chained volume measures) GDP per head (Chained volume measures) [Note 3] GDP (Current market prices) GDP implied deflator Seasonally adjusted 2025 1.2 0.9 4.8 3.6 Q1 2025 0.6 0.5 1.5 0.9 Q2 2025 0.0 -0.1 1.0 1.0 Q3 2025 0.2 0.1 0.9 0.7 Q4 2025 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.6 Q1 2026 0.6 0.6 1.5 0.8 Q2 2026 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.3 Download this table Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK .xls .csv Nominal GDP is estimated to have increased by an unrevised 0.8% in Quarter 2 2026 and is now 3.8% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago.
The implied GDP deflator is the broadest measure of inflation in the domestic economy, reflecting changes in the price of all goods and services that make up GDP. The GDP deflator covers the whole of the domestic economy, not just consumer spending. It also reflects the change in the relative price of exports to imports.
For more information on the implied GDP deflator, see our Measuring price changes of the UK national accounts: February 2023 article . Compared with the same quarter a year ago, the GDP implied deflator increased by 2.4% in Quarter 2 2026, mainly caused by household expenditure, exports and gross capital formation (Figure 2). Figure 2: The implied price of GDP increased by 2.4% in Quarter 2 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago Quarter-on-quarter a year ago contributions to growth in the price deflator, UK, Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025 to Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2026 Source: GDP quarterly national accounts from the Office for National Statistics Notes: Q1 refers to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar), Q2 refers to Quarter 2 (Apr to June), Q3 refers to Quarter 3 (July to Sept) and Q4 refers to Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec).
Component contributions do not sum to total because of rounding. An increase in import prices contributes negatively to the implied GDP deflator, while a decrease in import prices contributes positively to the implied GDP deflator. Download this chart Figure 2: The implied price of GDP increased by 2.4% in Quarter 2 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago Image .csv .xls The three approaches to measuring GDP Real annual GDP in 2025 is estimated to have increased by 1.2%, revised down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous estimate (Figure 3).
While the three approaches to measuring GDP remain closely aligned compared with the first estimate, there can still be uncertainty at the component level at this stage in the production cycle for 2025 onwards until these data have been confronted through the supply and use tables framework (SUTs). This uncertainty has various reasons and is further discussed in Section 12: Data sources and quality . Figure 3: Real GDP is estimated to have increased by 1.2% in 2025 Three approaches to measuring GDP and average GDP growth, UK, 2025 Source: GDP quarterly national accounts from the Office for National Statistics Notes: Chart shows the annual on previous annual growth (%).
Growth rates are rounded to one decimal place. Download this chart Figure 3: Real GDP is estimated to have increased by 1.2% in 2025 Image .csv .xls Back to table of contents 3. Output Output is estimated to have increased by 0.5% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2026 (previously a 0.4% increase), following an unrevised increase of 0.6% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2026.
Overall, in the latest quarter, there were increases in 13 out of 20 subsectors of gross domestic product (GDP). In Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2026, the services sector increased by 0.6%, the construction sector increased by 0.8% and the production sector decreased by 0.1%. From 2025 to 2026, the output approach to measuring GDP saw revisions for the following reasons: some businesses replied late and updated their Monthly Business Survey (MBS) returns, along with other source data updates Value Added Tax (VAT) data for Quarter 1 2026 were incorporated for the first time, as well as revisions to previous quarters a review of seasonal adjustment models the industry weights have also been updated and will affect the contribution of each industry to overall services growth; please see our GDP output approach – low level aggregates dataset for the latest weights Services Services output increased by 0.6% in Quarter 2 2026 (previously a 0.5% increase), following a revised increase of 0.7% in Quarter 1 2026.
Services output is estimated to be 1.7% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago. In Quarter 2 2026, non-consumer-facing services (business-facing services) grew by 0.7%, while consumer-facing services grew by 0.4%. Figure 4 shows that 9 of the 14 services subsectors contributed positively to services growth in Quarter 2 2026.
The largest positive contributors to growth were the professional, scientific and technical activities, and information and communication subsectors. Professional, scientific and technical activities increased by 2.3% in the latest quarter, driven by growths in advertising and market research (up by 5.4%), scientific research and development (up by 6.7%) and legal activities (up 3.3%). Information and communication increased by 2.5%, mainly because of growth of 3.6% in computer programming, consultancy and related activities.
The largest negative contributor to growth in Quarter 2 2026 was education, which fell by 0.4%, because of a fall in non-market education. This was the result of the closure of some schools during the heatwave conditions seen across much of the UK during June. Figure 4: 9 out of 14 services subsectors contributed positively to growth in Quarter 2 2026 Contributions to services growth, UK, Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2026 Source: GDP quarterly national accounts from the Office for National Statistics Notes: Components contribution may not sum to total because of rounding.
Download this chart Figure 4: 9 out of 14 services subsectors contributed positively to growth in Quarter 2 2026 Image .csv .xls Production The production sector is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in Quarter 2 2026 (revised down from the first estimate of no growth), following a 0.3% increase in the previous quarter. Production output is estimated to be 0.4% higher than the same quarter a year ago. Within production, there were declines in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, which fell by 0.8% and in water supply; sewerage, waste management, and remediation activities, which fell by 4.5%.
These were partially offset by increases of 0.5% and 2.1% in manufacturing, and mining and quarrying, respectively. Looking at the manufacturing sector in more detail, 6 out of 13 manufacturing subsectors contributed positively to manufacturing growth in the latest quarter (Figure 5). The largest positive contribution to the growth was the manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations (up by 4.0%).
Figure 5: 6 out of 13 manufacturing subsectors contributed positively to growth in Quarter 2 2026 Contributions to manufacturing growth, UK, Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2026 Source: GDP quarterly national accounts from the Office for National Statistics Notes: Components contribution may not sum to total because of rounding. Download this chart Figure 5: 6 out of 13 manufacturing subsectors contributed positively to growth in Quarter 2 2026 Image .csv .xls Construction Construction output is estimated to have increased by 0.8% in Quarter 2 2026 but is 1.0% lower compared with the same quarter a year ago. Both new work, and repair and maintenance grew over the period, increasing by 0.9% and 0.8%, respectively.
Within new work, the largest positive contribution came from private commercial and infrastructure new work, which grew by 4.5% and 2.9%, respectively. In repair and maintenance, the largest positive contribution came from non-housing repair and maintenance, which grew by 1.0%. Back to table of contents 4.
Expenditure Expenditure is estimated to have grown by 0.5% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2026, mainly because of increases in net trade. The previous and latest contributions to expenditure growth in Quarter 2 2026 are shown in Figure 6. There have also been revisions across 2025 and 2026, which is further discussed in this section.
Figure 6: Growth in the latest quarter was mainly driven by net trade Contributions to GDP by expenditure components, UK, Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2026 Source: GDP quarterly national accounts from the Office for National Statistics Notes: "Gross capital formation: other" will include changes in inventories and acquisitions less disposals of valuables, as well as the expenditure alignment adjustment. Contributions may not sum to total because of rounding. Download this chart Figure 6: Growth in the latest quarter was mainly driven by net trade Image .csv .xls Household final consumption expenditure There was a 0.3% increase in real household final consumption expenditure in Quarter 2 2026, and it is now estimated to be up by 1.2% compared with the same quarter a year ago.
Within household consumption in the latest quarter, growth was caused by increases in nearly all main categories, with the largest contributions from clothing and footwear, restaurants and hotels, and housing. Net tourism made a positive contribution to growth in household consumption in the latest quarter. Net tourism is offset within trade, so there is no effect on the gross domestic product (GDP) aggregate.
Information on how we measure net tourism is provided in our National Accounts articles: Treatment of tourism in the UK National Accounts . Excluding net tourism, domestic consumption grew by 0.3% in the latest quarter. Revisions to household consumption across 2025 and 2026 are mainly a result of a variety of data source updates, which includes the Living Costs and Food Survey.
Consumption of government goods and services Real government consumption expenditure fell by 0.5% in Quarter 2 2026 and is now estimated to be 1.2% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago. The fall in government consumption in the latest quarter mainly reflects a decline in education, which was caused by the closure of some schools during the heatwave conditions seen across much of the UK during June. Over the course of 2025 and 2026, government consumption sees revisions mainly as a result of: updated data for a number of components, including our annual health benchmark data, where we capture more detailed information on services delivered by the NHS improvements introduced as part of Blue Book 2026 a review of seasonal adjustment models.
Gross capital formation Within gross capital formation, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) is now estimated to have increased by 0.9% in Quarter 2 2026 and to be 3.1% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago. The main drivers of the growth are increases in other buildings and structures, partially offset by a fall in transport. Within GFCF, business investment is estimated to have increased by 1.8% in the latest quarter and is now estimated to be 5.2% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago.
Revisions reflect: the incorporation of improved and new methodology as part of Blue Book 2026 updated Quarterly Acquisitions and Disposals of Capital Assets Survey (QCAS) data and other source data (mostly affecting the latest period) a review of seasonal adjustment models Excluding the alignment adjustments, revised estimates show that chained volume inventories fell by £3.4 billion in Quarter 2 2026 (Table 2), mainly because of a reduction in manufacturing inventories. Table 2: Change in inventories, including and excluding balancing and alignment adjustments UK, Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025 to Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2026 Change in Inventories Of which alignment Of which balancing Change in Inventories excluding alignment and balancing Q1 2025 Current price -371 -1441 500 570 Q1 2025 Chained volume measure -1650 -1406 -244 Q2 2025 Current price 2 584 -582 Q2 2025 Chained volume measure 1382 569 500 313 Q3 2025 Current price 2072 1858 214 Q3 2025 Chained volume measure 2373 1790 583 Q4 2025 Current price -1811 -1001 -810 Q4 2025 Chained volume measure -1792 -953 -839 Q1 2026 Current price 1361 -2979 4340 Q1 2026 Chained volume measure 421 -2823 -750 3994 Q2 2026 Current price -4028 -730 500 -3798 Q2 2026 Chained volume measure -4103 -689 -3414 Download this table Table 2: Change in inventories, including and excluding balancing and alignment adjustments .xls .csv Net trade The UK's trade deficit for goods and services is now estimated at 1.6% of nominal GDP in Quarter 2 2026. However, this includes non-monetary gold and other precious metals, which is an erratic series.
It can be useful to exclude this from the trade balance. Excluding non-monetary gold and other precious metals, the trade deficit is now estimated at 0.5% of nominal GDP in Quarter 2 2026 (Figure 7). The trade deficit, excluding non-monetary gold and other precious metals, is shown in Figure 7 as a percentage of nominal GDP in this release compared with the first quarterly estimate.
Revisions reflect: improvements introduced as part of Blue Book 2026, particularly the results from the Annual International Trade in Services (ITIS) Survey updated ITIS data replacing forecasts used in the first estimate for the latest quarter, particularly through merchanting of fuels updated globalisation figures for chemicals Figure 7: Excluding non-monetary gold and other precious metals, the trade deficit was 0.5% of nominal GDP in Quarter 2 2026 Trade balance as a percentage of nominal GDP, excluding non-monetary gold and other precious metals, UK, Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2024 to Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2026 Source: GDP quarterly national accounts from the Office for National Statistics Notes: Q1 refers to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar), Q2 refers to Quarter 2 (Apr to June), Q3 refers to Quarter 3 (July to Sept) and Q4 refers to Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec). Non-monetary gold (NMG) is an erratic series and so it can be useful to consider this excluded from the trade balance. Download this chart Figure 7: Excluding non-monetary gold and other precious metals, the trade deficit was 0.5% of nominal GDP in Quarter 2 2026 Image .csv .xls Export volumes increased by 2.8% in the latest quarter (revised up from the first estimate increase of 0.5%) and are now 4.2% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago.
The increase in the latest quarter was mainly caused by a 3.7% growth in goods exports and a 2.0% increase in services exports. Within goods exports, the growth was mainly caused by rises in fuels. The growth in services exports was mainly because of other business service activities and travel.
Import volumes are estimated to have shown no growth in the latest quarter (revised down from a first estimate increase of 0.5%) and are now 2.5% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago. Goods imports fell by 0.5% mainly because of decreases in machinery and transport equipment. Services imports increased by 1.0%, mainly because of travel and transportation.
Back to table of contents 5. Income Nominal gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.8% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2026 and is up by 3.8% compared with the same quarter a year ago. Growth in nominal GDP in the latest quarter was mainly driven by an increase in gross operating surplus and taxes less subsidies.
The previous and latest contributions to nominal GDP growth in Quarter 2 2026 are shown in Figure 8. There have also been revisions across 2025 and 2026, which is further discussed in this section. Figure 8: Growth in nominal GDP was mainly caused by an increase in gross operating surplus and taxes less subsidies in Quarter 2 2026 Contributions to nominal GDP, UK, Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2026 Source: GDP quarterly national accounts from the Office for National Statistics Notes: Q1 refers to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar), Q2 refers to Quarter 2 (Apr to June), Q3 refers to Quarter 3 (July to Sept), and Q4 refers to Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec).
Components contributions may not sum to total because of rounding. Please note, the alignment adjustment is included in the Gross Operating Surplus (GOS) of nominal GDP. Download this chart Figure 8: Growth in nominal GDP was mainly caused by an increase in gross operating surplus and taxes less subsidies in Quarter 2 2026 Image .csv .xls Compensation of employees Compensation of employees showed no growth in Quarter 2 2026, but is now estimated to be 4.1% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago.
There was an increase of 0.9% in wages and salaries, which offset a 3.4% fall in employers' social contributions. Early estimates of private sector wages and salaries have historically been based on estimates of employee numbers from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and average earnings from the Average Weekly Earnings (AWE) statistics. Enhancements to the LFS, introduced since January 2024, mean that movements in the LFS since then reflect both underlying developments in the economy and improved survey quality.
Despite the improvement in LFS responses, some volatility remains in estimates of employee numbers. To therefore improve the accuracy of the income measure of GDP and maintain coherence with related statistics, including the sector accounts, we continue to use additional information from Pay As You Earn (PAYE) Real Time Information (RTI), as published in our Earnings and employment from Pay As You Earn Real Time Information, UK bulletin . Revisions in compensation of employees mainly reflect: new annual HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) PAYE benchmark data for 2024 to 2025 review of seasonal adjustment updated labour market indicators and other source data (replacing forecasts in the later period) Other income Other income is now estimated to have fallen by 0.2% in Quarter 2 2026 and is 2.5% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago.
The fall in the latest quarter was caused by a decline in household gross operating surplus. Taxes less subsidies Taxes less subsidies are estimated to have increased by 3.2% in Quarter 2 2026 and are now 7.7% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago. There was a 4.1% increase in taxes and an 11.9% increase in subsidies, which contribute negatively to GDP.
The 11.9% increase in subsidies was mainly because of other economic and service subsidies (partially from a new energy subsidy). Taxes for this quarter were revised upwards from the Quarter 2 2026 first quarterly estimate partially because of a change in HMRC methodology applied from April 2026. There was a published correction to taxes and subsidies published in August 2026, which affected the back series between March and May 2026.
HMRC has also implemented a new reconciliation exercise effective from September 2026. Gross operating surplus Total gross operating surplus (GOS) of corporations, excluding the alignment adjustment, increased by 2.1% in Quarter 2 2026 (Table 3). This is mainly because of an increase in private non-financial corporations (PNFC) of 3.0%.
Estimates of non-financial corporations within the GOS of corporations remains subject to uncertainty. This is because we do not have up-to-date quarterly information on the gross trading profits of businesses. These data are collected from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) and are available with a lag of approximately two years.
We rely on contextual data from other sources to inform these quarterly estimates, as outlined in our Profitability of UK companies quality and methodology information (QMI) . Table 3: Gross operating surplus of corporations, including and excluding alignment adjustments UK, Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025 to Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2026 Gross operating surplus of corporations Of which alignment Gross operating surplus of corporations excluding alignment Gross operating surplus of corporations excluding alignment Quarter-on-quarter growth Q1 2025 161520 20 161500 -0.7 Q2 2025 166108 1034 165074 2.2 Q3 2025 165009 1126 163883 -0.7 Q4 2025 162807 -2180 164987 0.7 Q1 2026 166087 -214 166301 0.8 Q2 2026 170066 333 169733 2.1 Download this table Table 3: Gross operating surplus of corporations, including and excluding alignment adjustments .xls .csv Back to table of contents 6. Real GDP per head and real household disposable income per head We produce estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) per head (or per capita), which divides UK GDP by the total UK population.
This is one proxy indicator of welfare, rather than production, which reflects a country's living standards. It captures the volume of goods and services available to the average person. Further information on this is available in our Trends in UK real GDP per head: 2022 to 2024 article .
Real GDP per head is estimated to have increased by 0.5% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2026 and is up by 1.2% compared with the same quarter a year ago (Figure 9). There have been some revisions to GDP per head figures, reflecting revisions to GDP estimates rather than population numbers. Population figures up to mid-2021 for the UK are based on mid-year UK population estimates .
Population figures for mid-2022 to mid-2025 are based on: population estimates for mid-2022 to mid-2025 for England and Wales , published on 29 July 2026 population estimates for mid-2022 to mid-2025 for Scotland , published on 14 July 2026 population estimates for mid-2022 to mid-2024 for Northern Ireland , published on 11 September 2025 2024 based population projections for mid-2025 for Northern Ireland , published on 28 April 2026 Population figures for Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2025 up to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2026 are based on an interpolation between mid-year estimates (projection for Northern Ireland) and 2024-based national population projections using the principal variant published on 28 April 2026. Figures for Quarter 2 2026 are based on the 2024-based national population projections . Figure 9: Real GDP per head is estimated to have increased by 0.5% in Quarter 2 2026 Real GDP per head, UK, Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025 to Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2026 Source: GDP quarterly national accounts from the Office for National Statistics Notes: Q1 refers to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar), Q2 refers to Quarter 2 (Apr to June), Q3 refers to Quarter 3 (July to Sept) and Q4 refers to Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec).
Chart shows the quarter on previous quarter growth (%), rounded to one decimal place. Population figures are a combination of mid-year estimates and projections, especially for later periods. For more information on the vintages used, please see our UK resident population mid-year estimates - real-time database dataset .
Download this chart Figure 9: Real GDP per head is estimated to have increased by 0.5% in Quarter 2 2026 Image .csv .xls We estimate real household disposable income (RHDI) per head, by dividing RHDI by the total UK population. RHDI per head has increased by 1.0% in Quarter 2 2026, following a decrease of 0.8% in the previous quarter (Figure 10). The components of this measure are further broken down in Section 7: Quarterly sector accounts .
Figure 10: Real household disposable income per head is estimated to have increased by 1.0% in Quarter 2 2026, from a decrease of 0.8% in Quarter 1 2026 Real household disposable income per head, seasonally adjusted, Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2024 to Quarter 2 (Apr to Jun) 2026 Source: Quarterly sector accounts from the Office for National Statistics Download this chart Figure 10: Real household disposable income per head is estimated to have increased by 1.0% in Quarter 2 2026, from a decrease of 0.8% in Quarter 1 2026 Image .csv .xls Back to table of contents 7. Quarterly sector accounts Real household disposable income per head (seasonally adjusted) Real household disposable income (RHDI) per head increased by 1.0% to £6,577 in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2026, following a decrease of 0.8% in the previous quarter. The increase in RHDI per head is because of the nominal gross disposable income position increasing by 1.6%.
This was partially offset by the growth in the implied deflator (used to remove the effects of inflation) of 0.5% in the latest quarter. Contributing to the growth in the latest quarter: net social benefits other than transfers in kind rose by £5.3 billion net social contributions rose by £3.4 billion wages and salaries rose by £2.8 billion taxes on income and wealth fell by £0.6 billion This is partially offset by a decrease in employers' social contributions of £2.9 billion (Figure 11). Figure 11: The rise in real household disposable income per head was driven mainly by an increase in social benefits other than transfers in kind Contributions to growth in real household disposable income per head, seasonally adjusted, Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2022 to Quarter 2 (Apr to Jun) 2026 Source: Quarterly sector accounts from the Office for National Statistics Download this chart Figure 11: The rise in real household disposable income per head was driven mainly by an increase in social benefits other than transfers in kind Image .csv .xls Households' saving ratio The households' saving ratio is estimated to have risen to 8.8% in Quarter 2 2026, up from 8.6% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2026.
This was driven by non-pension saving, which increased to 4.5%, up from 3.8% (Figure 12). Pension saving contributed 4.3 percentage points to the saving ratio, down from 4.8 percentage points in the previous quarter. Households' consumption expenditure grew by 0.9% this quarter, following growth of 1.5% in the previous quarter.
Within households' expenditure, the main areas of growth are transport fuels and lubricants, restaurants and cafés, and imputed and actual rentals for housing. Figure 12: Non-pension saving contributed 4.5 percentage points and pension saving contributed 4.3 percentage points to the saving ratio, which was at 8.8% in the latest quarter Saving ratio, seasonally adjusted, Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2016 to Quarter 2 (Apr to Jun) 2026 Source: Quarterly sector accounts from the Office for National Statistics Download this chart Figure 12: Non-pension saving contributed 4.5 percentage points and pension saving contributed 4.3 percentage points to the saving ratio, which was at 8.8% in the latest quarter Image .csv .xls Non-financial account net lending and borrowing (seasonally adjusted) In Quarter 2 2026, general government and financial corporations were net borrowers while non-financial corporations, households, non-profit institutions serving households, and the rest of the world were net lenders. The UK's borrowing position with the rest of the world as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have slightly decreased to 2.8% in Quarter 2 2026 compared with 2.9% of GDP in Quarter 1 2026.
Non-financial corporations switched their lending to 0.6% of GDP in the latest quarter, from borrowing of 0.0% (negative £323 million) of GDP in Quarter 1 2026. Within non-financial corporations, private non-financial corporations switched to net lending of £4.3 billion in Quarter 2 2026, from net borrowing of £1.3 billion in the previous quarter. This increase was driven by a rise in gross operating surplus of £4.5 billion and a fall in gross capital formation of £2.2 billion, partially offset by a rise in taxes on income and wealth of £1.2 billion.
Financial corporations net borrowing position was at 0.4% of GDP in the latest quarter following borrowing of 0.7% of GDP in Quarter 1 2026. This was driven by a rise in other capital transfers receivable of £2.6 billion and a fall in the adjustment for pension entitlements of £1.9 billion, partially offset by a rise in gross capital formation of £1.6 billion. General government net borrowing as a percentage of GDP increased to 5.2% in Quarter 2 2026, from borrowing of 4.2% of GDP in Quarter 1 2026.
Within general government, central government increased their net borrowing to £38.5 billion, following £28.3 billion in the previous quarter. This increase was driven by a fall in net social contributions and benefits of £6.7 billion, a fall in net capital transfers of £5.1 billion and an increase in interest payments of £1.9 billion, partially offset by a rise in taxes on production and imports of £3.7 billion and a fall in gross fixed capital formation of £1.1 billion. Households increased their net lending position to 2.4% of GDP in the latest quarter, from 2.3% of GDP in Quarter 1 2026.
The drivers for this position are the same as those identified in the real household disposable income section. Financial account net lending and borrowing (not seasonally adjusted) In Quarter 2 2026, general government were net borrowers, while non-financial corporations, financial corporations, households, non-profit institutions serving households, and the rest of the world were net lenders. The UK's net borrowing position with the rest of the world as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased to 3.8% in Quarter 2 2026 compared with 1.8% of GDP in Quarter 1 2026.
Non-financial corporations switched to net lending of 0.2% of GDP in the latest quarter following net borrowing of 1.1% of GDP in the previous quarter. Within this sector, private non-financial corporations switched to net lending to £0.6 billion in Quarter 2 2026 from net borrowing of £9.6 billion in the previous quarter. This was driven by a rise in net loans of £37.0 billion and a rise in net currency and deposits of £29.4 billion.
A fall in net other accounts of £24.0 billion and fall in net debt securities of £19.5 billion partially offset this. Financial corporations switched to net lending of 0.2% of GDP in the latest quarter, from net borrowing of 2.5% in Quarter 1 2026. This was driven by a rise in the acquisition of long-term debt securities issued by UK central government of £108.2 billion.
A fall in net currency and deposits of £67.4 billion partially offset this. General government switched to net borrowing of 8.0% of GDP in the latest quarter, from lending of 0.8% in Quarter 1 2026. Within general government, central government switched to net borrowing of £68.4 billion following net lending of £13.9 billion in the previous quarter.
This was driven by a rise in the liabilities of UK central government long-term securities of £96.9 billion together with a fall in assets in other long-term loans of £4.1 billion. A rise in net currency and deposits of £15.4 billion and a rise in net other accounts of £12.2 billion partially offset this. Households increased their net lending as a percentage of GDP, to 3.4% in the latest quarter, from 0.8% in Quarter 1 2026.
This was driven by a rise in net other accounts of £11.7 billion, a rise in deposits with UK monetary financial institutions of £10.4 billion, and a rise in the acquisition of UK unlisted shares of £5.7 billion. An increase in the acquisition of long-term loans secured on dwellings of £4.5 billion partially offset this. Revisions In line with our National Accounts Revisions Policy , this release contains data that are consistent with the UK National Accounts, the Blue Book 2026, which will be released on 30 October 2026.
Revisions across the full-time period, in particular Quarter 2 2024, are primarily because of updated source data and Blue Book 2026 improvements. These data are subject to further revision as we receive additional source data and seasonal adjustment improvements. Revisions are managed in-line with the National Accounts Revisions Policy.
Improvements to financial sector accounts developments The change is the creation of new experimental balance sheet and flow of funds statistics for S.124 Non-money market investment funds (investment funds), creating a more detailed sector breakdown within the financial corporations sector and improving visibility of "from whom-to-whom" financial relationships. These new data were developed as part of the Office for National Statistics and Bank of England Enhanced Financial Accounts (Flow of Funds) initiative and were intended to be integrated with other sources to improve the coverage and quality of the financial sector in the UK National Accounts. For further information see our Economics Statistics Transformation Programme: enhanced financial accounts (UK flow of funds) – Shadow banking – S.124 non-money market investment funds article .
Correction to the classification of redundancy pay and statutory sick pay in the sector accounts It was identified that redundancy pay and statutory sick pay were allocated incorrectly to D.612 Employers' imputed social contributions. They have now been allocated to D.611 Employers' actual social contributions, resulting in revisions between the two transactions. Back to table of contents 8.
Revisions to GDP Early estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) are subject to positive or negative revision, as described in our Why GDP figures are revised article . For more information, please refer to our GDP revisions in Blue Book: 2025 article , published on 31 October 2025. The GDP growth vintages to one decimal place are shown in Table 4.
Overall, revisions in this release are mainly because of improved and updated source data: negative 0.2 percentage points in Quarter 2 2025; this is driven by weaker growth in all three approaches: output (mainly in professional, scientific and technical activities, and education), expenditure (mainly in net trade, in exports of goods and services) and income (taxes less subsides and private non-financial corporations) positive 0.1 percentage points in Quarter 3 2025; this is driven by stronger growth in output (real estate activities) and a small implied deflator revision negative 0.1 percentage points in Quarter 4 2025; this is driven by the output approach, with cumulative downward revisions in 9 out of the 13 subsectors positive 0.1 percentage points in Quarter 2 2026; this is driven by the output approach, mainly in professional, scientific and technical activities reflecting revised Monthly Business Survey data Table 4: Quarter-on-quarter growth for real GDP at different publication vintages Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025 to Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2026 Relating to Period Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2025 Q1 2026 Q2 2026 May 2025 0.7 Jun 2025 0.7 Aug 2025 0.7 0.3 Sept 2025 0.7 0.3 Nov 2025 0.7 0.3 0.1 Dec 2025 0.7 0.2 0.1 Feb 2026 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 Mar 2026 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 May 2026 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 Jun 2026 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.6 Aug-26 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.4 Latest estimate: Sept 2026 0.6 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.6 0.5 Total revision between first and latest estimate -0.1 -0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 Download this table Table 4: Quarter-on-quarter growth for real GDP at different publication vintages .xls .csv Back to table of contents 9. International comparisons Table 5: Real GDP growth for the G7 economies Percentage change, quarter on quarter and annual growth, real gross domestic product (GDP) for 2025 and 2026 Quarter on previous quarter (%) Annual (%) Country Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2025 Q1 2026 Q2 2026 2025 Canada 0.7 -0.2 0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.8 1.9 France 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.9 Germany 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 Italy 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.7 Japan 0.5 0.1 -0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 1.2 UK 0.6 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.6 0.5 1.2 United States -0.2 0.9 1.1 0.1 0.5 0.4 2.1 Download this table Table 5: Real GDP growth for the G7 economies .xls .csv Table 6: Real GDP per head growth for the G7 economies Percentage change, quarter on quarter and annual growth, real gross domestic product (GDP) per head for 2025 and 2026 Quarter on previous quarter (%) Annual (%) Country 2025 Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2026 Q1 Q2 2026 2025 Canada 0.5 -0.3 0.4 -0.1 0.3 1.0 0.7 France 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 -0.2 .. 0.6 Germany 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 Italy 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.7 Japan 0.6 0.1 -0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 1.6 UK 0.5 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.9 United States -0.3 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.5 0.3 1.6 Download this table Table 6: Real GDP per head growth for the G7 economies .xls .csv Back to table of contents 11. Glossary Embed code Embed this interactive Back to table of contents 12.
Data sources and quality Reaching the GDP balance Quarterly GDP is a balanced measure of three approaches. The GDP monthly estimate focuses on gross value added (GVA) and output as a proxy for GDP. This results in data differences, in both levels and growth terms, between our quarterly bulletins (average GDP) and our GDP monthly estimate bulletins (output approach to GDP).
Quarterly GDP is the lead measure of GDP because of its higher data content and inclusion of variables that enable the conversion from a GVA concept to a GDP basis. Information on the methods we use is in our Balancing the output, income and expenditure approaches to measuring GDP report . Alignment adjustments, found in Table M of our GDP data tables , have a target limit of plus or minus £3,000 million on any quarter.
However, in periods where the data sources are particularly difficult to balance, larger alignment adjustments are sometimes needed. This is explained in more detail in our Recent challenges of balancing the three approaches of GDP article . Our standard practice is to prefer that the alignment adjustment be out of tolerance rather than over-adjust individual GDP components to achieve a balance.
This is most likely to occur in the latest quarter, where the constraints are larger, and where we must align to the output estimate for the change in GDP, and where the data content is at its lowest. To achieve a balanced GDP dataset through alignment, we apply balancing adjustments to the components of GDP where data content is particularly weak in each quarter because of a higher level of forecast content. Table 7 shows the balancing adjustments applied to the GDP quarterly dataset.
Table 7: Balancing adjustments applied to the GDP quarterly national accounts dataset Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025 to Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2026 GDP measurement approach and component adjustment applied to Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2025 Q1 2026 Q2 2026 Expenditure Non-profit institution serving households Current price Chained volume measure 200 600 600 600 600 600 Gross fixed capital formation Current price 500 500 500 500 -500 -500 Chained volume measure -1000 -1500 Inventories Current price 500 500 Chained volume measures 500 -750 Trade in services exports Current price 500 -1500 -500 -500 Chained volume measures 1000 500 -500 Trade in services imports Current price -500 Chained volume measures -1000 -1000 -500 -1000 -500 -500 Income Private non-financial corporation gross operating surplus Current price -3500 1000 -2500 3500 -1000 Compensation of employees Current price -2000 -2000 -2000 -2000 -2000 -2000 Download this table Table 7: Balancing adjustments applied to the GDP quarterly national accounts dataset .xls .csv Net trade Since the UK left the EU on 31 January 2020, arrangements for how the UK trades with the EU changed. HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) implemented some data collection changes following Brexit, which affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU. We have made adjustments to our estimates of goods imports from the EU in 2021 and 2022 to account for these changes.
However, a structural break remains in the full time series for goods imports from, and exports to, the EU from January 2021, therefore we advise caution when interpreting and drawing conclusions from these statistics. More detail is provided in our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics: summary of adjustments and the structural break from 2021 article . International Trade in Services estimates From September 2025 until early 2027, International Trade in Services (ITIS) data (which account for approximately 50% of total Trade in Services) will be processed once each quarterly period.
During this period, the data will be based on a robust survey response rate of between approximately 60% and 70%. This will enable more focus on improving processing systems and ensuring methods and quality in the future. ITIS-based data in Trade in Services estimates at first quarterly estimate will be forecast until early 2027.
The International Passenger Survey (IPS), which is the source of travel services estimates (accounting for approximately 8% of total trade), is being transformed as part of our Improving our travel and tourism statistics project , and travel services estimates have been forecast since Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2024. Estimates will be forecast during the period of the travel and tourism transformation. Our Financial Services Survey (FSS) is undergoing transformation to improve the quality of our financial sector statistics.
During the period of transformation, starting from Quarter 1 2024, financial services trade statistics in this publication are based on forecasts. The three approaches to measuring GDP There are three approaches to measuring gross domestic product (GDP): the output approach the expenditure approach the income approach The data and data quality are different for each approach, and this dictates the approach taken in balancing quarterly data. There are more data available on output in the UK in the short term, than in the other two approaches.
To get the best estimate of GDP, our published figure, estimates from all three approaches are balanced to produce an average, except in the latest two quarters where the output data take the lead, because of the larger data content. The three approaches to measuring GDP allow us to confront our data sources within the national accounts framework. Figure 3 shows that there are differences in the three approaches at this stage in the production cycle for 2025, with real growth estimated in a range of 1.1% to 1.4%.
There will be uncertainty at the component level at this stage in the production cycle for 2025 onwards until these data have been confronted through the supply and use tables framework (SUTs). This uncertainty may be for various reasons and is discussed further later in this section. Output approach In the output approach, we do not currently have final estimates for intermediate consumption (the value of goods and services purchased to be used up in the production of goods and services).
This is outlined in our Blue Book 2025: advanced aggregate estimates article . Initially, we use turnover and output as a proxy for changes in gross value added. We assume that the intermediate consumption ratio by industry, calculated in 2024, holds constant into 2025 onwards.
Expenditure approach In the expenditure approach, we currently have lower response rates for areas, such as the Living Costs and Food Survey, which is one of many data sources that inform our estimates of household consumption. We therefore rely on additional indicators, such as our Monthly Business Survey, to quality adjust some of our estimates in the short term. Income approach In the income approach, we do not have up-to-date quarterly information on the gross trading profits of businesses.
These data are collected from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) and are available with a lag of approximately two years. We rely on contextual data from other sources to inform these quarterly estimates, as outlined in our Profitability of UK companies quality and methodology information (QMI) . Strengths and limitations The UK National Accounts are drawn together using data from many different sources.
This ensures that they are comprehensive and provide different perspectives on the economy, for example, sales by retailers and purchases by households. Further information on measuring GDP can be found in our Guide to the UK National Accounts . More quality and methodology information is available in our GDP quality and methodology information (QMI) .
Seasonal adjustment The headline estimates of quarterly GDP are seasonally adjusted. Seasonal adjustment is the process of removing the variations associated with the time of year, or the arrangement of the calendar, from a data time series. GDP estimates, as for many data time series, are difficult to analyse using raw data because seasonal effects dominate short-term movements.
Identifying and removing the seasonal component leaves the trend and irregular components. We use the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS approach to seasonal adjustment. Seasonal adjustment parameters are monitored closely and regularly reviewed.
For more information, please see our seasonal adjustment methodology page . In our quarterly GDP estimates, seasonal adjustment is applied at a low level, and the seasonally adjusted series are aggregated to create estimates by sector and total output. As part of our quality assurance approach, residual seasonality checks are regularly completed by our time series analysis team on both the directly seasonally adjusted series, and the indirectly derived aggregate time series.
There are conceptual differences between indirect and direct seasonal adjustment. Indirect seasonal adjustment is the aggregation of the directly seasonally adjusted component series, typically chosen at an optimal level and depending on user needs. For the UK National Accounts, GDP aggregates are created with indirect seasonal adjustment.
Because ofto processing, including benchmarking and chain-linking, direct seasonal adjustment of the non-seasonally adjusted GDP aggregate will not give the same results as the indirect seasonally adjusted output Based on our combined assessment from the suite of statistical tests, there is no statistically significant residual seasonality in our aggregate outputs (average GDP, total expenditure, total income and total output) from Quarter 1 1955 to Quarter 2 2026, although we continue to monitor this closely. This topic is explored further in our recently published How the ONS assesses statistical outputs for residual seasonality article , updated on 12 May 2026. More details can also be found in the Office for Statistics Regulations's (OSR's) Compliance review of Treatment of Seasonality in Quarterly GDP statistics and our response to this review .
Important quality information There are common pitfalls in interpreting data series: expectations of accuracy and reliability in early estimates are often too high revisions are an inevitable consequence of the trade-off between timeliness and accuracy early estimates are often based on incomplete data Very few statistical revisions arise because of "errors" in the popular sense of the word. All estimates, by definition, are subject to statistical "error". Many different approaches can be used to summarise revisions.
The section on Accuracy and reliability in our GDP quality and methodology information (QMI) analyses the mean average revision and the mean absolute revision for GDP estimates over data publication iterations. For more information, please refer to our GDP revisions in Blue Book: 2025 article , published on 31 October 2025. Accredited official statistics These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in October 2016.
They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality, and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled "accredited official statistics". Back to table of contents 14. Cite this statistical bulletin Back to table of contents
Source: Office for National Statistics
